After Months Of Campaigning And Debating, Iowa Caucuses Are Here : NPR

DAVID GREENE, HOST:

We’re protecting the caucuses. It’s, in fact, the beginning of the presidential marketing campaign season formally. And, Rachel, final time I used to be right here 4 years in the past, there was a variety of suspense in each events.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Proper. Not likely the case this 12 months for Republicans – President Trump just about has the lock on the nomination at this level for the GOP.

GREENE: However Democratic candidates have been, I imply, principally dwelling in Iowa not too long ago. In keeping with The Des Moines Register, campaigns have held roughly 2,500 marketing campaign occasions because the begin of the 2020 cycle.

MARTIN: However who’s counting?

GREENE: However who’s counting? The Des Moines Register is counting. And we’ve got the Register’s political editor right here with us, Rachel Stassen-Berger. Hey, Rachel, thanks for coming in.

RACHEL STASSEN-BERGER: Good morning. We’re positively counting.

GREENE: You’re counting. You rely all the pieces.

MARTIN: So many numbers. And one other editor with us as effectively – NPR senior political editor Domenico Montanaro is on the desk. Hello, Domenico.

DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey there.

MARTIN: So I wish to begin out asking a query that many have requested. Why does Iowa get this job? No offense to everybody within the dwell viewers, however…

GREENE: Folks surprise.

MARTIN: There’s a critique as as to if or not a state, frankly, that’s 85 p.c white, it doesn’t symbolize the Democratic Get together within the nation, in America, in 2020. Why it is the primary contest within the major season. We talked to a restaurant proprietor in Davenport, Iowa. His identify is Dan Bush. He defended Iowa’s place. Let’s pay attention, after which we’ll speak on the opposite aspect.

DAN BUSH: Not solely is Iowa a real purple state, however past that, it is like I believe that individuals listed here are simply much more open to sitting down and speaking issues out and dealing towards options. I believe it is a part of that blue-collar, you understand, center America work ethic. And I believe that is why Iowa ought to proceed to be the primary state to do it as a result of we do have individuals that actually do care and care about one another.

MARTIN: Rachel, is he proper? Is Iowa a real purple state and does it should be first?

STASSEN-BERGER: Nicely, let’s begin with Iowa is first as a result of, frankly, we’re fairly good at it. The voters right here have spent greater than a 12 months learning these candidates. They go to the occasions. They learn their place papers. And they also actually dive in deeply. It’s a part of the Iowa tradition to get to know and to vet individuals who wish to be president. And, actually, there have been questions, and there have been firstly of this cycle. Will individuals nonetheless come to Iowa? Will anybody care about Iowa, a small state within the Midwest that is not demographically consultant of the remainder of the nation? Nicely, it seems with these 2,500 presidential occasion…

GREENE: They got here.

STASSEN-BERGER: They got here, they usually refused to go away since 2018. They did not go to California, despite the fact that California’s early voting begins at present. They spent much less time in New Hampshire. The presidential candidates determined that Iowa actually issues, and Iowans responded.

MONTANARO: It has been gorgeous to see simply how a lot cash the candidates have spent in Iowa in comparison with New Hampshire. I imply, they’ve spent nearly – somewhat extra I believe now at this level, about $50 million on TV adverts, digital radio, cable. And, you understand, I imply, simply take Joe Biden, for instance. He has spent $three million in Iowa on adverts, $5,000 in New Hampshire…

GREENE: Wow.

MONTANARO: …As of two weeks in the past.

GREENE: Are the stakes that prime for these candidates right here?

MONTANARO: Yeah, it truly is. I imply, you’ve – it is a place that has been very predictive over time within the final 40 years of the Democratic nominee. Seven of the final 9, the final 4 have all received Iowa. And, you understand, I believe for them they really feel prefer it supplies a launch pad for that media narrative. And, you understand, New Hampshire is extra of a form of restart versus reinforcement. You understand, you’ll be able to actually – John Kerry, for instance, in 2004 was capable of win each states, wrap up the nomination. 2008 and 2016 – very various things that we noticed with Barack Obama, individuals considering that he can be launched out of Iowa. His ballot numbers went up into New Hampshire, after which Hillary Clinton had that shock win in New Hampshire – actually meant an extended race. And in 2016, a form of related factor the place you had Bernie Sanders win in New Hampshire after a really slim win for Hillary Clinton right here.

GREENE: You and I acquired an opportunity to look at the very finish of the Tremendous Bowl collectively final evening, Domenico.

MONTANARO: Yeah.

GREENE: However you had simply are available from simply travelling in all places to a bunch of marketing campaign occasions and seeing candidates and all the pieces. I imply, electability has been such a subject listening to from Democratic voters on this marketing campaign – who can beat Donald Trump? Is that what you’ve got been listening to within the current days?

MONTANARO: Yeah. And it is such an amorphous factor. You understand, like, what does that imply? How do you quantify it? And it is form of a calculation that a variety of the candidates are making and the supporters are making themselves. I imply, clearly, Bernie Sanders supporters have been onstage studying ballot numbers, like, particular decimal factors. You had Michael Moore, the filmmaker, on stage saying Bernie Sanders cannot win. Nicely, this is the ballot numbers that say he can. After which I used to be at an Elizabeth Warren occasion, for example, and he or she’s acquired to form of thread this needle the place she, you understand, is seeing a variety of Sanders supporters right here coalesce round Sanders after they had appeared to be abandoning him now type of going again dwelling. And, you understand, she’s needing to form of win over a few of these extra average voters.

And there was a man I talked to yesterday at a Warren occasion – and regarded like there have been a variety of consumers there, those who I talked to, a variety of Amy Klobuchar followers. This man stated that he was strongly leaning Amy Klobuchar. He had seen Elizabeth Warren a number of occasions, appreciated her lots. However he stated he has a variety of Republican neighbors who aren’t – who’re form of disaffected with President Trump. They’re searching for an alternate. However Elizabeth Warren’s, quote-unquote, “battle message” he stated is one thing he feels will flip off a variety of these Republican neighbors. She tells this story about how she labored with Republicans to get listening to aids over-the-counter. And he stated, look, that is an amazing message. If she went with that, then I might see supporting her. So the issue is she’s actually acquired these two sides which are form of pulling at her.

MARTIN: I wish to ask you, Rachel, about this – the massive flip that occurred in 2016 in Iowa. Very fascinating – 31 Democratic counties – they’d been Democratic anyway – went for Donald Trump in 2016. Iowa has extra counties than another state that flipped from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. Why?

STASSEN-BERGER: Nicely, let’s begin with Iowa has a variety of counties. There’s 99 of them. So it was near a 3rd of them that went Obama, Obama, Trump. And I believe you see in these counties that they are usually extra union targeted. They’re older. They’re whiter than even on this very white state. And I believe there was some – you understand, they did not love Hillary Clinton. They actually appreciated the type of change that Trump was promising. And we have seen Democrats on this cycle spend a variety of time in these counties to attempt to win them again. In actual fact, at The Des Moines Register, one of many counties we have been learning for greater than six months is Clinton County, which is a kind of flip counties, and speaking to Democrats there and attempting to determine, you understand, if the Democrat wins – whichever Democrat wins tonight, if that one can take that very same message to related international locations throughout – related counties throughout the nation.

MARTIN: I wish to play a little bit of tape. That is truly fascinating. It is a Republican who flipped to vote for Barack Obama after which primarily he went dwelling again to the GOP for Donald Trump. His identify is Danny Chick. He lives in Muscatine.

DANNY CHICK: I believe the identical motive most individuals voted for Barack Obama is similar motive they voted for Trump is everyone on this nation to me desires to see change. They did not turn into totally different. They wished to show the system the other way up on its head even when it wasn’t fairly, even when it wasn’t all the time proper.

MARTIN: So, Domenico, I suppose a forward-looking query, is there a Democrat this 12 months in 2020 who can deliver these Republicans who voted for Obama again to the blue column?

MONTANARO: Nicely, I believe the true query is change. I imply, I believe the voter there actually nailed it. You understand, if you look again at a variety of elections over the previous 40, 50 years, the candidate who most embodies change wins, you understand, and in the event you’re a candidate who’s seen as established order, it is by no means been normally an excellent factor. Now, does that imply Donald Trump has form of reset issues? I do not know. But when, you understand, there’s this pendulum swing the place, you understand, the one that adopted George W. Bush, you could not get extra reverse than Barack Obama. Definitely, for Barack Obama, are you able to identify someone who was extra reverse than Donald Trump, proper? So if you speak to Sanders individuals, they really feel like, hey, perhaps the – if we’re on this polarized society, if it is a base election, then the pendulum swings again in that course. And we have actually seen that in Europe the place you’ve got seen a form of right-wing nationalism that is cropped up after which a left-wing socialism that has taken maintain.

GREENE: Rachel, can I ask you about – I visited southern Iowa. I used to be within the city of Creston, and I used to be talking to a Democrat. He is a farmer who stated he’s voting for Trump. He is very involved about how a lot cash he says Democrats spend on public help applications for decrease revenue People. And I went from there, and in Lamoni, I used to be within the basement of a church at a meals pantry speaking to a lady named Theresa Farrell (ph) and he or she was saying that the poor are actually misunderstood. Right here she is.

THERESA FARRELL: I am not silly (laughter). I believe that that is hooked up to – a variety of it’s if she knew extra, she’d do higher, and that is not all the time the case. You understand, I am not lazy, and I am not dumb, and I am not attempting to take something from you (laughter). I really feel responsible. I’ve guilt and disgrace. And that is a tragic factor for individuals to be – to really feel responsible for dwelling in poverty and to be ashamed of that.

GREENE: Yeah, I imply, clearly struck by her story. She was extremely inspiring. Additionally she stated she’s not caucusing tonight, which simply made me surprise. We hear a lot speak of insurance policies to assist the deprived in our nation. She’s not going to really be a part of the method – or she wasn’t planning on it after I talked to her. Does tonight actually mirror all of Iowa, the people who find themselves going to end up?

STASSEN-BERGER: Nicely, I actually – it doesn’t mirror all of Iowa as a result of we’re not anticipating massive crowds on the Republican caucus. And there is a variety of Republicans in Iowa. However, you understand, I do suppose that you will note a cross part of Democrats. You understand, caucuses aren’t the identical as primaries, however, frankly, in a variety of states, individuals do not present up for primaries any approach. And so I believe that that is the most effective guess that Iowa has on what the state and all the nation would need from the candidates.

GREENE: Rachel Stassen-Berger is The Des Moines Register’s political editor; additionally listening to from NPR senior political editor Domenico Montanaro. Thanks each for becoming a member of us this morning on caucus day. We respect it.

MARTIN: Thanks you two.

STASSEN-BERGER: Completely.

MONTANARO: You are welcome.

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