DANA: It is Dana (ph) right here from the sunny West Coast. I would hoped and I would prayed the present I preferred most would lastly launch a day by day version, which, fortunately, now has come to fruition. Earlier than, I used to be misplaced and of reports a bit cautious. The political local weather had gotten fairly scary. However the POLITICS POD has now saved the day, decoding the reality from the din and the fray. So sit down, loosen up and tip your hat to this superb pod recorded at…
KELSEY SNELL, HOST:
2:34 p.m. on Wednesday, March 4.
DANA: Issues could have modified by the point you hear this. Benefit from the present.
(SOUNDBITE OF THE BIGTOP ORCHESTRA’S “TEETER BOARD: FOLIES BERGERE (MARCH AND TWO-STEP)”)
SNELL: Very proficient.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Ought to we snap? I really feel just like the English main in me appreciates the poetry.
SNELL: (Laughter) All of us admire the poetry.
Hey there. It is the NPR POLITICS PODCAST. I am Kelsey Snell. I cowl Congress.
JUANA SUMMERS, BYLINE: I am Juana Summers. I cowl demographics and tradition.
MONTANARO: And I am Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
SNELL: And the fallout from Tremendous Tuesday has begun.
MONTANARO: It is nonetheless falling.
SNELL: Certainly.
(SOUNDBITE OF SONG, “BYE BYE BYE”)
NSYNC: (Singing) Bye, bye, bye. Bye-bye.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG: When you bear in mind, I entered the race for president to defeat Donald Trump. And immediately, I’m leaving the race for a similar motive – to defeat Donald Trump – as a result of staying in would make it tougher to attain that aim.
SNELL: Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has ended his presidential marketing campaign and had one of many shortest runs out of any of the 2 dozen candidates we had. So what did all of that cash get him, Domenico?
MONTANARO: (Laughter) Not a complete heck of lots.
(LAUGHTER)
MONTANARO: I imply, he solely has 53 delegates. He could wind up with greater than that, however he spent half a billion {dollars} – billion with a B. That’s some huge cash. It is solely rivaled perhaps per delegate by Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 marketing campaign, who spent about $60 million for one delegate.
SNELL: That could be a wild sum of money.
SUMMERS: Yeah, it is fairly spectacular. He’d invested in quite a lot of states and was actually banking on the early vote, had this actually spectacular discipline group in quite a lot of these states, had extra on-the-ground staffers than some other candidate. And but, it’s clear that this isn’t – this didn’t go the best way that Mike Bloomberg and his aides had deliberate.
He did not get lots out of this, however I feel the large winner right here could be – Democrats will now be benefiting from all of Mike Bloomberg’s cash that he’s now not spending on his personal marketing campaign and that we’re prone to see him spend to, say, Joe Biden, who he is endorsed, in addition to different Democrats down poll and different causes, as we have seen him do in previous election cycles.
MONTANARO: What Democratic officers have instructed me after I talked to them about Bloomberg spending all this cash early on – they mentioned, look; so long as he’s attacking President Trump, we’re effective with it. He laid the groundwork for that. He says he’ll help whoever the Democratic nominee is. And, look; he definitely is exhibiting that he is prepared to spend fairly the fortune to oust Donald Trump from the White Home.
SNELL: So Bloomberg acquired out, however we nonetheless have just a few extra candidates left in there, together with Elizabeth Warren.
SUMMERS: Yeah, that is proper. And we do not know what she goes to do but. She mentioned that she is reassessing her marketing campaign, taking a look at her path ahead. We all know that she’s been beat in her residence state of Massachusetts final evening, however she got here in third there. So we’ll wait to see what she does subsequent. She’s gotten quite a lot of help from quite a lot of influential progressive leaders within the days forward of Tremendous Tuesday. However we do not know what comes subsequent for her.
SNELL: , final evening, we broke down the important thing outcomes from all the states that voted. And immediately, I wish to form of zero in on a few of the extra particular knowledge that we learn about immediately as we’re trying backward. And I form of wish to begin with you, Juana, if that is OK. You cowl demographics on this marketing campaign. And Joe Biden’s marketing campaign has been saying for months that they might make their manner by successful black voters, notably within the South. Is that what we noticed?
SUMMERS: It is precisely what we noticed. , February was a very attempting month for Joe Biden. He acquired beat in contest after contest. And he and his aides saved telling you and I and others that he would ship a win in South Carolina, the primary state with a majority of black voters, and that if that occurred, it could catapult him to a slew of victories on Tremendous Tuesday and past. And that is what we noticed.
Simply as one instance, in Alabama, the place black voters make up about half of the voters, Joe Biden received them by greater than 60 share factors – the form of margin that gave him form of a crush of delegates. He received black voters by greater than 50 share factors in Virginia. In Texas, which was shock win for him, he received black voters by greater than 40 share factors. So simply placing up large numbers with them throughout the South in a manner that was in a position to give him a very large evening on Tuesday.
MONTANARO: I imply, momentum is one factor, however we now have by no means seen this type of turnaround the place Biden’s marketing campaign and candidacy was basically lifeless except he received in South Carolina. He wins, beats expectations after which comes out of that with all that momentum. As a result of it regarded like Bernie Sanders was operating away with the nomination, moderates coalesced in a manner that we now have by no means fairly seen earlier than as different candidates dropped out and full – in full power, wholeheartedly acquired behind Joe Biden.
SNELL: Proper. I wish to – that goes to a different level that I wished to get to, Domenico. Joe Biden received individuals who have been making up their minds on the final minute, individuals who have been deciding day of. I am questioning, is that this all credited to folks like Amy Klobuchar and, you understand, Pete Buttigieg, who, after they dropped out, endorsed Biden? Or is one thing else occurring right here?
MONTANARO: I feel that is an enormous a part of it. However, you understand, what we had seen in the course of the marketing campaign all all through was that it doesn’t matter what the polls mentioned, when you regarded contained in the numbers, some three-quarters of Democrats mentioned they might change their thoughts. And that confirmed quite a lot of volatility and quite a lot of softness with whoever they have been supporting. However there are nonetheless two fairly distinct strains inside this get together – those that need daring, progressive change and people who are extra within the incremental camp – chunk off what you possibly can chew. Look; clearly, that a part of the get together determined that Bernie Sanders would go too far for them, they usually all determined to go a method.
SUMMERS: I feel the opposite factor that is vital to notice right here, too, is that in these victories that Joe Biden had on Tuesday evening, he additionally received large in quite a lot of locations the place he did not spend quite a lot of time and the place he did not actually make an funding in a discipline program, so form of tossing a few of the standard knowledge, you understand, on the way you win states out the window. To Domenico’s earlier level, momentum mattered greater than cash for this. And it labored out in Joe Biden’s favor.
SNELL: We talked lots final evening, you and I, concerning the political alignment of Latino voters specifically – you understand, the distinction of the demographics of the place Latino voters in Texas are politically and the place they’re, say, in California. Are you able to – can we discuss a bit of bit extra about that?
SUMMERS: Positive. So we are saying this on a regular basis, and I do know it form of will get previous, however Latino voters aren’t a monolith, and the realities of these voters look very totally different in these states. However what’s fascinating is that Bernie Sanders received Latinos in each of those states. He has invested so closely in an on-the-ground program and Spanish-language ads. As we have reported, people calling him Tio Bernie, or Uncle Bernie, as he is been out on the bottom stumping, deploying a ton of surrogates. He is simply made an enormous funding. And I feel what is going on to be fascinating is seeing – he is received them in these states, however as we glance ahead down the first calendar, there are different states with Latino populations that look totally different than even California and Texas the place he will not be as widespread, in order that they will not be the nationwide firewall that he is had them be previously.
SNELL: And let’s speak about age. That is the final half that I feel that we actually must get to right here as a significant demographic that break up in a fairly dramatic manner. We noticed Biden selecting up older voters and Sanders selecting up youthful voters. That is one thing that we have talked about anecdotally, however Tremendous Tuesday was a fairly sturdy demonstration of that, proper, Domenico?
MONTANARO: Completely. I imply, the coalitions with these two candidates are so clear and distinct. Relating to age, there isn’t any sharper division. And, you understand, younger voters below 30 – that is who Bernie Sanders promised he might prove, and he hasn’t actually executed that on this election. , they have not saved tempo with general turnout will increase. And final evening, in each single state that had exit polls in 2016 and this yr, turnout – as a share of the voters, younger voters was down in each single a kind of states. However you had Joe Biden successful older voters by an enormous margin and Bernie Sanders successful younger voters by an equally or greater margin.
SUMMERS: To me, what’s most fascinating concerning the age breakdown and as we take a look at this from a generational lens is the truth that with Bernie Sanders consolidating the younger vote because it exists, with Joe Biden consolidating help amongst older voters, which means there is a actually fierce battle for these people within the center, these voters who’re between the ages of 40 to 65 that we do not speak about as a lot. I feel whoever wins them – that could possibly be vital on this election.
SNELL: All proper. These have been the numbers from final evening. And once we come again, we’re going to check out what’s developing subsequent within the races within the coming week.
And we’re again. However earlier than we transfer on to all of the issues which might be coming, we have to take a pause, and we acquired to speak about delegates as a result of we do not actually know precisely who has what number of delegates. We’re – we’re ready for totals to come back in. And, Domenico, I am hoping you possibly can clarify to us a bit of bit about why that’s and why delegates matter.
MONTANARO: As a result of delegates are what picks the winner on this race. And, you understand, that is the actual key right here. And it is a bit of bit sophisticated the best way Democrats do it as a result of they attempt to be proportional. They do not do a winner-take-all system the best way Republicans do. They attempt to have the vote share basically match what number of delegates any individual winds up attending to go to the conference.
So the one wrinkle, although, is that anyone who will get beneath 15% will get no delegates. And it is not simply so cleanly as, oh, they acquired 14% statewide; it means they acquired no delegates. Nicely, in a few of these states, you may look – for instance, Elizabeth Warren acquired some delegates in locations the place she was beneath the 15% threshold statewide. That is as a result of she received above 15% in varied congressional districts in every of these states. And that is how they’re apportioned out.
SNELL: All proper, so let’s take all of that math and the best way the apportionment works and sit up for subsequent week as a result of if this week was tremendous, subsequent week is large. So we now have Huge Tuesday developing (laughter).
MONTANARO: That was nicely executed as a result of I am not so sure concerning the title of this, however we’re going with it.
SNELL: Yeah, we’re proudly owning Huge Tuesday. It’s coming. And the way large is Huge Tuesday? What number of states are we taking a look at? And which of them are up for grabs?
MONTANARO: There are six states which might be voting – Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington state. The 2 largest prizes are Michigan and Washington state. Michigan’s acquired 125, Washington State – 89 – nowhere close to the scale of what we simply noticed on Tremendous Tuesday.
However what is going on to be vital is, once more, that phrase momentum. Bernie Sanders actually must run up the rating in a spot like Michigan to indicate that he is acquired some momentum to have the ability to blunt what lots of people assume might be benefits that Joe Biden has in a few of the states developing, like Florida and Georgia later within the month.
SNELL: All proper. Juana, we talked lots about these demographics, about, you understand, the place Sanders wins. Are these states locations the place Sanders wins? Inform me concerning the demographics and the place every individual can play greatest.
SUMMERS: Positive, positive. So the actual fact of the matter is that the calendar does not get simpler for Bernie Sanders on this coming week. After all, the large prize on Huge Tuesday, as I suppose we’re calling it, might be in Michigan, the place Bernie Sanders had a significant upset 4 years in the past over Hillary Clinton. And this get together’s been obsessive about the concept of electability, so while you’re desirous about these basic election prospects, Michigan might be big. I feel we’ll hear Bernie Sanders attempt to discuss lots about commerce, speaking about how he’s uniquely certified to defeat Donald Trump and win again a few of these disaffected white working-class voters that we talked about a lot in 2016.
My residence state of Missouri additionally votes on Tuesday. Sanders misplaced that state in 2016 by lower than a share level. It is going to be one other check of each Biden and Sanders help amongst black voters. However within the Midwest – and, once more, the black vote isn’t a monolith, so you are going to see some totally different points pop up there. And black voters make up a couple of fifth of Democratic turnout in that state. Domenico talked about Washington state, which I additionally assume’s going to be actually fascinating for Bernie Sanders. They, like quite a lot of different states, have switched from being a caucus state to a main state. Sanders has been seen as the favourite in a few of the polls that we have seen. However that implies that due to the best way that they are doing their elections, he will not have as simple a time piling up the delegate margins in the identical manner he did in 2016. So issues look a bit of bit tougher for him, and I feel we’ll see him be extremely aggressive competing in these states and the states that come afterward March 17 which have extra sizable shares of delegates at stake to attempt to get a foothold and to leapfrog forward of Joe Biden.
SNELL: All proper, we’ll have to go away it there for immediately, however that Huge Tuesday isn’t too far-off. And earlier than then, we’ll be again tomorrow at our regular time, 5 p.m. Until then, be part of us on our Fb group. It is a spot to speak about politics with different followers of the podcast and ask us questions. Head to n.pr/politicsgroup, and be sure to reply these questions so to be part of the group.
I am Kelsey Snell. I cowl Congress.
SUMMERS: I am Juana Summers. I cowl demographics and tradition.
MONTANARO: And I am Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
SNELL: And thanks for listening to the NPR POLITICS PODCAST.
(SOUNDBITE OF THE BIGTOP ORCHESTRA’S “TEETER BOARD: FOLIES BERGERE (MARCH AND TWO-STEP)”)
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